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Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

Pokhrel, Yadu; Felfelani, Farshid; Satoh, Yusuke; Boulange, Julien; Burek, Peter; G�deke, Anne; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Grillakis, Manolis; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hanasaki, Naota; Kim, Hyungjun; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Liu, Junguo; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Schewe, Jacob; M�ller Schmied, Hannes; Stacke, Tobias; Telteu, Camelia-Eliza; Thiery, Wim; Veldkamp, Ted; Zhao, Fang; Wada, Yoshihide

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Authors

Yadu Pokhrel

Farshid Felfelani

Yusuke Satoh

Julien Boulange

Peter Burek

Anne G�deke

Dieter Gerten

Dr SIMON GOSLING SIMON.GOSLING@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Professor of Climate Risks and Environmental Modelling

Manolis Grillakis

Lukas Gudmundsson

Naota Hanasaki

Hyungjun Kim

Aristeidis Koutroulis

Junguo Liu

Lamprini Papadimitriou

Jacob Schewe

Hannes M�ller Schmied

Tobias Stacke

Camelia-Eliza Telteu

Wim Thiery

Ted Veldkamp

Fang Zhao

Yoshihide Wada



Abstract

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to droughts remain unexamined. Here, using ensemble hydrological simulations, we show that climate change could reduce TWS in many regions, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Strong inter-ensemble agreement indicates high confidence in the projected changes that are driven primarily by climate forcing, rather than land and water management activities. Declines in TWS translate to increases in future droughts. By the late-twenty-first century, global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double, each increasing from 3% during 1976-2005 to 7% and 8%, respectively. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation to avoid adverse TWS impacts and increased droughts, and the need for improved water resource management and adaptation.

Citation

Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., …Wada, Y. (2021). Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 24, 2020
Online Publication Date Jan 11, 2021
Publication Date Jan 11, 2021
Deposit Date Dec 15, 2020
Publicly Available Date Jul 12, 2021
Journal Nature Climate Change
Print ISSN 1758-678X
Electronic ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w
Keywords Social Sciences (miscellaneous); Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5147615
Publisher URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00972-w

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